Introduction

Value Betting - How I Supplemented My Income & Paid For Luxury Holidays, Designer Clothes & More Without Breaking A Sweat

1st January 2017
Sport.ONE
AUTHOR

Sport.ONE

This post was contributed by John, (currently prefer to not reveal his full name) a former employee of a very big betting company. - Please read it thoroughly, this can really change your life.

Whether you are new to betting, or you are seasoned gambler, you’ve heard the same things mentioned time and time again.

People say that no matter what, you just cannot win money with gambling.

Quote such as “you never see a poor bookmaker” are the most popular phrases to dissuade people from parting with their hard earned cash.

On the other side of the fence, you have the bookmakers. Of course, they want you to think you can win money… and lots of it!

No doubt some of you may feel that the first statement is right, and that you can’t win money with betting.

Well, you’re wrong, but it’s actually not your fault. It is the fault of the online gambling companies.

Some of them want to promote the type of gambling practises that will lose you money. Things like accumulators, and the backing of favourites. And we’ll get onto why you must stay away from these shortly.

The reason I wanted to tell you my story is because I was just like many of you. At first I thought that betting was evil, a guaranteed journey to being poor. That I would be losing all of my hard earned cash the second I opened an online betting account.

Once I had my first bet though, I won! “Wow” I thought to myself. “Is it really this easy?”

The feeling was amazing.

So I gambled my winnings. And when I’d lost them, I gambled some more money. But things weren’t working out quite as I hoped. I was losing, and losing, and losing again.

I would see retweets of 10-fold accumulators where people would win thousands from a bet worth just a few pounds/euros. It’s only natural that I wanted the same, who wouldn’t!? So, I chased the dream.

It was inevitable that I would lose. A 500/1 bet means it is only going to happen once every 500 times!

So, after a frustrating Saturday watching my bank drain, and my bets lose, I thumped my oak desk and shouted “that is it, I’m done!” and I quit gambling altogether.

However, by sheer coincidence, 6 months later, I got a job in the gambling industry for a giant of the game. I suddenly had access to lots of really smart betting people. I had access to the industry secrets. I could see the bets that were being placed by smart people who were actually winning money.

I soon learned the key to being successful with betting relied on one thing.

The Secret To Winning

It’s called ‘value’.

What does value mean in this context, you may be asking?

Well, let me answer that for you as simply as possible.

When a bookmaker sets the odds in a market, the odds of each selection represents a percentage. This percentage shows the probability each selection has of being the winning selection.

For example:

Tottenham 1.90 Draw 3.5 Arsenal 4.1

If the following Football match was played, these are likely to be the odds that the bookmaker offers you.

We mentioned before that the odds of each selection represents a percentage. The percentage shows the chances of that selection winning. The calculation to show the probability is as follows:

Tottenham: (1 / 1.9) x 100 = 52.63

Draw: (1 / 3.5) x 100 = 28.57

Arsenal: (1 / 4.1) x 100 = 24.39

As you can see, you must divide the odds by 1. For the Tottenham selection that gives you a sum of 0.5263. Then you multiple 0.5263 by 100 to arrive at the full percentage, as shown below:

Tottenham 52.63% Draw 28.57% Arsenal 24.39%

However, do you notice something about those numbers?

The sharp eyed of you may have noticed they add up to 105.59%!

But how can that be? Either the match will end with a Tottenham win, an Arsenal win, or a Draw. It should add up to 100%.

This is what is known as the bookmaker's ‘overround’ and is how they make their juicy profits, no matter the result.

It gives them a head start on you, and allows them to offer odds that represent a higher implied probability. So Tottenham may only have a 50% chance of winning, but you’re getting odds that say they have a 52.63% chance of winning.

So anyway, enough of the boring stuff. But once I learned that crucial piece of information, it completely changed my perspective.

Betting isn’t about choosing the right team, and trying to be right every single time.

It’s about playing the percentages and searching for value. Finding bets where the bookmaker odds say Team A have a 45% chance of winning, when in fact they have a 55% chance.

So I set about creating a plan. I started to follow it religiously, tweaking it step by step along the way. And you know what? Suddenly, I started to win... with regularity.

I was able to take my girlfriend on luxury holidays and buy the latest designer clothes. Eventually I even put down a deposit for a house with my winnings.

It was like living in a dream for a while. It had been drummed into me that it was impossible to bet and win. Yet here I was proving everyone wrong!

The plan I put into place revolved around finding the selections where I thought the bookmakers probability of an event happening was incorrect. By consistently placing level, single bets on these incorrect odds, you will win over the long run. It’s the type of betting practice that bookmakers dislike.

But It Wasn’t Plain Sailing...

You see, I soon discovered that when you started to win consistently, the bookmakers didn’t like it, for obvious reasons.

One day, I received an email that simply said:

“Dear John After a review by our trading team, we have decided to suspend your account…”

When I showed my betting expert colleagues, they laughed.

“I’m surprised it has taken that long!"

This is when it was explained to me that bookmakers have a complexed algorithm that judges each player based on how good they are at gambling.

The ratings ranged between 1 & 5.

1 - Awful gambler - loses money and places bets on odds on shots and accumulators.

5 - Great gambler - places even stakes on value bets. Ban.

But it’s OK, I had lots of other bookmakers to choose from. So I just picked another, signed up with their sign up bonus and started all over again with a nice little cash injection.

And as I kept winning, I was banned again. And again. But the great thing was that the bookmaker offers just kept lining up, ready for me to take one after the other.

The Truth About Bookmakers

Now, I’m not going to sit here and villainize the bookmakers. What you must understand, is that they are a business. In a VERY competitive industry.

Many people think that they exist simply as some kind of charitable organisation that kindly lets people win bets, and that anything goes.

Whereas they see themselves solely as an ‘entertainment platform’. By reframing themselves as an entertainment platform, they are saying that it’s OK to lose your money. That you’re just betting for fun.

But what is fun about losing money? Absolutely nothing.

That is why, with more education, we need to bet in a way that can change the industry forever. You need to start betting smart. In a way that stops the inflow of easy money that the bookmakers currently have.

My top tips to help you form your plan

Each person is different and will find success in different ways. But a few rules apply that you absolutely must stick to as you formulate your plan.

1.Favourites are usually very poor value

The temptation for most people is to back the hot favourite. Unfortunately, they tend to hugely underpriced. One of the most profitable things for the bookmaker is when people back certain favourites. Just look at any Premier League weekend, it’s likely that at least one of the short priced favourites lose.

By backing these favourites consistently, you WILL lose in the long run.

2.Accumulators are for losers

Everyone who has ever placed a bet will likely have placed an accumulator from time to time. And I don’t blame you - I did too.

I would add 10 teams that I thought were guaranteed to win to my bet slip, and marvel at the huge returns I was promised. I used to place my bet and dream of what I would spend the money on.

Once you get into this mindset, you start to chase those big wins as the losses mount.

3. Stake sensibly

One of the keys to success is to find value and playing the percentages, as we described earlier.

And the only way you can take advantage of that, is to use sensible, level stakes. Ideally, you will set aside an amount of money that becomes your bank. You will then only back your selections using a small percentage of between 2% and 5%.

You will mark each of your betting selections based on your confidence. So for bets you are really confident about, and show excellent value, you will place 5% of your bank. With bets that you are less confident about, you’ll place between 2% and 4%.

4. Know your sport inside out

Ok, so here is the deal. The bookmakers offer hundreds of thousands of different markets. In the old days they used to be able to dedicate a specialist to each sport who set the odds. They cannot do that any more, and many of the odds are set with computer algorithms.

So the best way for you to spot value, is by using your insider, forensic like knowledge and research.

It helps if you place your focus away from the big competitions. So forget the English Premier League, how about swatting up on Japanese Football instead? Or choosing a lesser known sport? This will make you much more likely to seize an edge on the bookmaker.

5. Don’t be loyal to one bookmaker

In your quest to receive great prices, it’s important to shop around and find them.

Once you’ve determined the price you feel a bet should be, compare it to the other bookmakers you are signed with (we strongly recommend to use more than 1, for odds and bonus related reasons).

The great thing is, there are lots of new account opening offers on our Free Bets Guide for you to take advantage of. So not only do you receive the best prices, but you get a free bet too!

The Definitive Guide To Free Bets And How To Profit

Whether you are a seasoned gambler, or someone who has never placed a bet before, you are sure to have heard of the term 'free bet'. In this guide, we will give you the breakdown on what a free bet is, and how to make the most of them. But

6. Avoid bookmakers cash out

The cash out tool offered by bookmakers is extremely poor value. And as you know by now, this game is about value.

The cashout button plays on your fears, and you will never get anywhere near the true price of your bet.

If you are getting nervous, and that happens to us all, lay the selection on a betting exchange like Betfair. You will find much better odds.

7. Your head should rule your heart.

One of the hardest things for me to master, was to bet with my head, and not my heart.

Betting can be emotional. The highs from the wins, and lows from the loses. They conjure a need to bet more, to recreate the happiness and get rid of the sadness of a loss.

You need to disassociate yourself from your betting bank. Consider it gone, and treat the small consistent gains you’re trying to make as a game. Not a money making exercise.

You will find that your betting success increases hugely once you master this.

Before You Go... I Need A Promise From You

The information above can be very powerful if used correctly.

In fact, there is no point betting unless you follow those rules (unless you like losing money). But if you do follow them? Then the extra cash you dreamed of through betting is more accessible than ever.

So before you go ahead and click on one of the links above to get your free bet, we want you to make us a promise.

The Definitive Guide To Free Bets And How To Profit

Whether you are a seasoned gambler, or someone who has never placed a bet before, you are sure to have heard of the term 'free bet'. In this guide, we will give you the breakdown on what a free bet is, and how to make the most of them. But

Share this page with others,and help to spread the word of betting smart. Also, ensure that you stick to the rules we have given you.

We are on a mission to educate irresponsible gamblers and show them that the bookmakers CAN be beaten, and quite handsomely. But you have to be sensible, and you have to be disciplined.

Good luck, and remember to use the links provided on our Free Bets guide to get the free bets to kickstart your journey.

Free Bets Guide

The Definitive Guide To Free Bets And How To Profit

Whether you are a seasoned gambler, or someone who has never placed a bet before, you are sure to have heard of the term 'free bet'. In this guide, we will give you the breakdown on what a free bet is, and how to make the most of them. But

If you would like to learn more about Value Betting. How to find them and calculate the odds Then you are welcome to download the full Value Betting Ebook we wrote just for you, please join our mailing list so we will be able to send you the Ebook and betting tips.

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